Monday, November 10, 2008

Voter turnout truth

The revised national turnout rate for those eligible to vote was 61.2% or 130.4 million ballots cast for president, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the 60.1% turnout rate of 2004, but less than the 1968 turnout rate of 62.5%. Sorry, no record blowout.

Of course, there are still outstanding ballots to be counted (including absentee, provisional, and write-in ballots). But, earlier estimates of 133.3 million ballots or more were way too high (largely) due to an over-estimation of absentee ballots. But, don’t tell the press - - these facts don’t fit their stories!

There were turnout declines in states like Oregon and Washington, which lost battleground status, and states without hot Senate contests this year (South Dakota). And, there were declines in deep red states, such as Alaska and Utah, unenthused by their choices. Obviously, the early call of the election had to have depressed west coast turnout.

The largest turnout increases were in the new battleground states (Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, et al.) and states with large African American populations (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and D.C.)

http://elections.gmu.edu/preliminary_vote_2008.html

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