Sunday, January 11, 2009

Economic reality

Most tax cuts have little economic impact for at least 6 months to one year.

Most spending plans have little economic impact until the completion of the bid and design process (after which construction and most expenditures begin) and thus little economic impact for at least 6 months to one year. (Unless you go the Bush/Cheney route, and dispense with usual bidding procedures, thereby allowing corruption and cronyism to flourish.)

Economic reality is that we are at the mercy of the business cycle, which in the usual course of things will begin to lift us out of recession in late 2009 or early 2010.

The "economic recovery plans" being designed in Washington are mostly excuses and vehicles for passage of long held dreams and schemes, including tax cuts and excessive spending that couldn't be passed in ordinary times, but which will be passed with little concern for debts or deficits. In fact, annual trillion dollar deficits could make some things worse.

If only we had instruments of change willing to say this, and willing to change the usual way Washington does business. Because recent American economic history proves one thing - - balanced federal budgets (only accomplished under a Democratic president) are the best way to encourage and assist the upturn of the usual business cycle.

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