Sunday, October 24, 2010

Forget 2010 - - it looks like 2012 is a lost cause

Obama is campaigning as if he's on the ballot . . . probably because he realizes that what happens this election day in 2010 could doom his reelection prospects in 2012.

The poll shows why the central argument in Rubio's campaign -- that he is the only candidate who will stand up to President Barack Obama's agenda -- is a winning message. Only 43 percent of [Florida] voters approve of Obama's handling of his job, while 51 percent disapprove. . . . Fifty-two percent of voters -- and even one in four Democrats -- think the healthcare plan passed by Congress should be repealed. Only about one in three voters think it should remain in place.

In case anyone forgot Bush v. Gore, now would be a good time to remember that nationwide vote totals, big winning margins in New York, California and Illinois, and the popular vote are all irrelevant. Unless the Democratic presidential candidate wins Florida, he loses in the electoral college.

Of course, there has been one big change since 2000 - - Florida's population (and therefore its electoral importance) has increased, while the weight of most traditionally Democratic northern states has declined.

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