Thursday, February 18, 2010

Denial

To make themselves feel better about the polls showing a majority against Obama's reelection, the hard core believers are citing to a August, 2001 poll in which Bush did worse.

Matt Drudge is currently blaring this headline about a new CNN poll (PDF):

CNN SHOCK POLL: MAJORITY SAY OBAMA DOESN'T DESERVE 2ND TERM

Actually, the poll isn't especially shocking. As The Hill points out, "52 percent of Americans said President Barack Obama doesn't deserve reelection in 2012" -- a number that is almost identical to the proportion who disapprove of the job he's doing (50%).

For context, a Fox News poll in August 2001 asked the following question about George W. Bush:

Considering how President (George W.) Bush has performed so far, do you think he deserves to be reelected or would the country probably be better off with someone else as president?

The results? 36% said Bush deserved to be reelected, 42% said the country would be better off with someone else, and 22% said it depends or weren't sure. These numbers are actually worse than Obama's relative to the 55% approval/32% disapproval numbers the Fox poll showed for Bush.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_drudgehyped_cnn_shock_poll.php

Shouldn't a "political and polling expert" remember that something happened on 9/11/01 which changed all political equations?

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