Preliminary census data indicate they may be wrong.
Although a decades-old population shift favoring Sun Belt states slowed this year, the South continues to seize political power once held by the Northeast and Midwest, Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday show.
Eight states, including six in the South and Southwest, would gain seats in the House of Representatives if apportionment were done today rather than after the 2010 Census, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Election Data Services.
Texas would be the biggest winner, adding three seats. In line to add a seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
Ohio would lose two seats, and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania would each lose one.
"It's a continuation of the trend we've seen before," said Kimball Brace of Election Data Services.
The Democrats risk more than the 2010 elections by ignoring the South.